高盛宏观交易团队：“9月降息50基点”应是基准情形，市场低估了这种可能性

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement a 50 basis point rate cut in September, contrary to the widely expected 25 basis points [1] Group 1: Employment Market Signals - The employment market has clearly turned, with recent data indicating a significant decline in job creation, particularly in the private sector [2] - The U.S. economy has seen the lowest job additions in the past three months, with GDP growth rate declining by approximately 100 basis points year-over-year [2] - The unemployment rate is gradually rising, and the labor market disparity index suggests that the actual labor market conditions are worse than indicated by the unemployment rate [2] Group 2: Rate Cut Expectations - The market currently prices in a 22 basis point rate cut for the September meeting, but Goldman Sachs believes that a 50 basis point cut should be the new benchmark expectation [3] - If inflation does not show significant improvement, the Federal Reserve may consider a 50 basis point cut, with potential for cuts of 75-100 basis points if inflation remains subdued [3] - The consensus among Fed members is expected to shift towards acknowledging substantial weakness in the employment market [3]