最鸽派的预测出现了！摩根大通：美联储将在未来四次会议上降息

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that JPMorgan has updated its forecast for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, predicting a series of interest rate cuts in the upcoming meetings, with a 25 basis point cut expected at each of the next four meetings [1][2] - The nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board by President Trump is seen as a significant personnel change that could influence monetary policy decisions [1][2] - JPMorgan's economist Michael Feroli suggests that the Fed may implement a 25 basis point cut at the September meeting, followed by three additional cuts, reflecting a dovish stance from Wall Street [1][2] Group 2 - The approval process for Miran in the Senate before the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is expected to be challenging, which could impact the voting dynamics within the committee [2] - Historical trends indicate that new appointees may abstain from voting at their first FOMC meeting, which could lead to a significant number of dissenting votes if Miran participates [2] - The upcoming meeting's considerations may extend beyond balancing employment and inflation risks to include political and personnel factors, making an early rate cut a potentially less contentious option [2] Group 3 - The labor market is identified as a critical indicator for the Fed's decision-making, with the unemployment rate being a key factor in determining the extent of any rate cuts [3] - A higher unemployment rate (4.4% or above) could lead to more substantial rate cuts, while a lower rate (4.1% or below) amidst rising inflation may face opposition from committee members [3] - The context of the stock market being at historical highs while inflation remains above target complicates the acceptance of a dovish policy by the committee [3]