茅台护城河决堤：价格失守、增速放缓，53亿回购难掩增长焦虑

Core Viewpoint - The market for Moutai is experiencing a rare "cooling" phase, with the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai dropping below 2000 yuan per bottle, reaching 1860 yuan, a decline of 360 yuan since the beginning of the year. The company has lowered its annual revenue growth target to 9%, the lowest since 2016, raising questions about the sustainability of Moutai's growth narrative [1][4]. Group 1: Share Buyback and Market Response - Moutai has initiated a share buyback plan, spending approximately 5.3 billion yuan to repurchase shares, with a total of 3.45 million shares bought back, representing 0.2748% of the total share capital [1][2]. - The buyback is intended for cancellation, signaling to the market that the company believes its stock is undervalued amidst declining prices and market pressures [2][8]. - Following the implementation of the "ban on alcohol" policy, Moutai's stock price has faced downward pressure, with a notable drop of over 11% from 1607.39 yuan per share on May 14 to 1423.88 yuan on August 6 [2][9]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Challenges - In 2024, Moutai reported a revenue of approximately 1708.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.71%, and a net profit of about 862.28 billion yuan, also up 15.38% [4][6]. - Despite these figures, the company has set a modest revenue growth target of around 9% for 2025, indicating a slowdown in growth expectations [4][8]. - The company faces challenges from multiple levels, including macroeconomic transitions, industry cycle adjustments, and internal operational changes [8]. Group 3: Industry Context and Price Trends - The white liquor industry is undergoing significant adjustments, with Moutai's prices falling below the psychological threshold of 2000 yuan per bottle, attributed to shrinking demand and increased supply [9][11]. - As of August 6, the price of Feitian Moutai on e-commerce platforms has dropped to as low as 1820 yuan per bottle, reflecting a broader trend of price declines in the market [11][13]. - Analysts suggest that Moutai should take measures to restore market confidence and manage supply effectively to stabilize prices amidst these challenges [13].