市场“错杀”了礼来？

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly's stock plummeted 15% following its Q2 earnings report, but Bank of America believes this is a panic sell-off, asserting that the company's fundamentals remain strong [1][5]. Financial Performance - Eli Lilly reported Q2 total revenue of $15.558 billion, a 38% year-over-year increase, exceeding Bank of America's expectations by 4% and market expectations by 6% [4]. - The weight loss drug Mounjaro generated $5.199 billion in revenue, surpassing expectations by 16%, while Zepbound achieved $3.381 billion, exceeding expectations by 8% [4]. - Adjusted earnings per share were $6.31, exceeding Bank of America's expectations by 8% and market expectations by 13% [4]. - The gross margin reached 85.0%, up 3 percentage points from the previous year, driven by improved product mix and production efficiency [4]. Market Sentiment and Concerns - Despite strong financial results, market reaction was negative due to concerns over the future of the weight loss drug business, particularly regarding the competitive landscape and pricing pressures [5]. - Investors expressed anxiety over the prospects of the oral weight loss drug Orforglipron, with doubts about its positioning in a competitive market [5]. - Pricing trends and potential threats from generic competitors, particularly in the Canadian market, were highlighted as significant concerns [5]. Analyst Outlook - Bank of America reiterated a "buy" rating for Eli Lilly, setting a target price of $1,000, citing the significant mismatch between the company's growth potential and its current valuation [6]. - The report emphasized that Eli Lilly's revenue growth guidance for 2025 is approximately 35%, compared to an average growth rate of 4% for peers, indicating a substantial growth advantage [11]. - The valuation based on projected earnings for 2026 shows Eli Lilly's price-to-earnings ratio is only twice that of the second-fastest growing competitor, suggesting that there is value in the stock given its growth rate [11].