AKESO(HK:09926) Ge Long Hui·2025-08-10 23:07Core Insights - The company AK112 is leading globally in the development of second-generation immune-oncology (IO) therapies and is expected to capture the largest market share in this segment [1][2] - The broad-spectrum anti-cancer effects of PD-1 and VEGF targets are promising, with a significant existing market potential of nearly $60 billion, driven by the synergistic mechanisms of dual-target therapies [1] - The company has made substantial progress in clinical trials, with multiple Phase III studies underway and a unique position as the only approved PD-1/VEGF dual antibody globally [2] Market Potential - The global peak sales for VEGF monoclonal antibody Bevacizumab reached approximately $7.1 billion in 2019, while combined global sales for PD-1/PD-L1 monoclonal antibodies are projected to reach $51.6 billion by 2024 [1] - The total upfront payments for PD-1/VEGF or PD-L1/VEGF dual antibody licensing agreements have reached $3.9 billion, with total deal values amounting to $28.8 billion [1] Clinical Development - AK112 has received approval for two indications in China, with one included in the national medical insurance directory, showcasing its leading global progress [2] - The company is advancing multiple Phase III clinical studies for various cancers, including NSCLC, triple-negative breast cancer, and pancreatic cancer, which could potentially replace existing market products [2] - The first international registration trial for the PD-1/CTLA-4 dual-specific antibody, AK104, has been approved, indicating significant clinical and commercial potential [2] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are estimated at 3.518 billion, 5.765 billion, and 9.372 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits projected to be -186 million, 803 million, and 2.966 billion yuan respectively [3] - Assuming successful international Phase III trials for AK112, the risk-adjusted peak sales are estimated at approximately $19.7 billion [3] - Based on a DCF valuation with a WACC of 8.06% and a perpetual growth rate of 1%, the reasonable market capitalization is calculated to be 222.8 billion HKD [3]