Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-08-11 08:46Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' hedge fund department suggests going long on U.S. stocks in the second half of the year while implementing hedging strategies, with a focus on technology stocks [1][3]. Market Resilience - The recent performance of U.S. stocks indicates greater resilience than expected, with the S&P 500 fully recovering its previous week's losses and the Nasdaq 100 reaching a new all-time high [1][4]. - This resilience is attributed to sustained AI stimulation, healthy capital inflows, and a decoupling of stock market performance from economic indicators [3][4]. Factors Driving Technology Stocks - Three main factors contribute to the ongoing strength in technology stocks: renewed AI stimulation, overall healthy capital flows despite reduced speculative demand, and the historical observation that the stock market does not directly reflect economic performance [6][10]. - Major technology companies reported strong Q2 earnings, with significant acceleration in cloud computing, advertising, e-commerce, and core product businesses [6]. Employment Market Concerns - A notable slowdown in U.S. job growth has raised concerns, particularly with the unemployment rate among tech workers aged 20-30 rising by nearly 3 percentage points since early 2024, significantly higher than the overall unemployment rate [10]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts a Q3 GDP growth of 1.2% and a 2024 GDP growth of 1.8%, suggesting that current concerns may ease if growth returns to trend levels [10]. Investment Framework - The recommended investment strategy includes going long on U.S. stocks (focusing on technology), long on value storage assets (gold/silver/bitcoin), slight short positions on the dollar, and steepening yield curve trades globally [12]. - The outlook for August suggests potential consolidation, with a belief that the main trend will remain upward into the second half of 2025 [12].