Costco(US:COST) 3 6 Ke·2025-08-11 11:29Core Viewpoint - The retail landscape in China is shifting towards hard discount models, with traditional membership-based supermarkets facing challenges and closures, indicating a potential decline in the middle-class consumer illusion [2][7][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Costco's entry into China six years ago highlighted the potential of middle-class consumption, leading to a surge in membership-based retail models [2]. - The acquisition of Metro China by Wumart exemplifies the struggle of foreign brands in China and the ongoing evolution of traditional supermarket brands [2]. - Wumart is now focusing on hard discount models, learning from successful international brands like Aldi [2][4]. Group 2: Hard Discount Model Emergence - Wumart's hard discount brand "Wumart Super Value" has opened its first six stores in Beijing, filling a market gap in northern China [3]. - Competitors like Meituan and JD are also entering the hard discount space, indicating a growing trend among major players [4]. - The hard discount sector is expected to become highly competitive, resembling a "street war" among retailers [5]. Group 3: Performance of Key Players - Hema's X membership stores have expanded rapidly, but face challenges with a low membership renewal rate of 62% in China compared to over 90% globally for Costco [7]. - Aldi has successfully penetrated the Chinese market, achieving a sales figure of 2 billion yuan in 2024, despite only a slight increase in store count [9]. - Hema NB has outpaced Aldi in store openings, leveraging a franchise model and community pickup stores to enhance its market presence [9][12]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Profitability Challenges - The hard discount model operates on low margins, with typical gross margins between 10% to 15%, posing significant profitability challenges [17]. - Successful players in the hard discount sector are focusing on supply chain efficiencies, often relying on private label products to maintain competitive pricing [18]. - Aldi's private label products account for 90% of its offerings, establishing a price advantage over competitors [18]. Group 5: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The community discount sector in China has substantial growth potential, with current market penetration below 10% compared to over 30% in developed countries [15]. - The hard discount sector is becoming a focal point for major retailers, with a trend of mimicking successful models rather than innovating [21]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying as major players leverage their financial strength and brand recognition to dominate the market [26].