UBS(US:UBS) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-11 13:07Core Viewpoint - UBS strategists predict a decline in the US stock market in the second half of 2025, with a target for the S&P 500 index at 6100 points by the end of 2025, lower than current levels [3] Economic Indicators - Recent economic data indicates a downward trend in the US economy, with signs of weakness in the job market [3] - The negative effects of President Trump's tariff policies are becoming more apparent, contributing to a more pronounced downward trend in the US economy [3] Federal Reserve and Market Response - Even if the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts in the remaining months of 2025, the cautious approach of Chairman Powell and rising economic pressures may limit significant stock market gains, increasing the likelihood of declines [3] - Wall Street institutions also recognize potential downward pressure on the US stock market, though the nature of this decline—whether a moderate correction or a panic sell-off—remains to be seen [3] Market Risks - Current indicators show increasing risks in the US stock market, both in terms of index levels and investment concentration [3] - Investors are advised to exercise caution in managing their positions and avoid blindly chasing high valuations [3] Notable Investor Actions - Warren Buffett currently holds over $340 billion in cash-like assets, a historical high, signaling his warning to investors about current market risks [3] - Buffett's quote, "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked," emphasizes the importance of being aware of underlying risks in the market [3]