Group 1 - The adjustment in the liquor sector began due to the revision of regulations against waste by government agencies, leading to concerns about long-term demand for liquor [1] - High-end liquor's share in government affairs has decreased, and business demand remains a key driver correlated with the national economy's activity level [1] - Citic Securities believes the liquor industry is rapidly bottoming out, with leading companies likely to seize opportunities for channel structure adjustments and market expansion [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities indicates that the liquor industry is a strong beta sector, with weak economic and consumption conditions affecting performance, but leading companies with strong brands are expected to recover value first [2] - Guotai Haitong Securities forecasts that the liquor industry is accelerating towards a performance bottom, potentially reaching it by mid-2026, with stock prices likely to turn before demand [2] - The logic of market share is expected to gradually replace volume and price logic in the long term, positioning liquor as a "quasi-debt asset" [2] Group 3 - Zhenjiu Lidu expects revenue for the six months ending June 30, 2025, to be between RMB 2.4 billion and RMB 2.55 billion, a decline of 38.3% to 41.9% compared to the same period in 2024 [3] - The expected net profit for the same period is projected to decrease by 23% to 24%, with adjusted net profit anticipated to decline by 39% to 40% [3]
政策变量加速白酒行业出清 机构看好底部机遇（附概念股）