CATL(SZ:300750) Hua Xia Shi Bao·2025-08-12 00:18Core Viewpoint - The recent supply disruptions in lithium mining, particularly the suspension of operations at Ningde Times' Jiangxiawo mine, have led to a significant shift in the carbon lithium market from surplus to balance, with potential for further tightening in supply [3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On August 11, carbon lithium futures surged, with the main LC2511 contract rising by 8% to 81,000 yuan/ton due to supply disturbance news [3]. - The spot prices for battery-grade carbon lithium increased to 73,000-76,000 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade prices rose to 71,600-73,000 yuan/ton, reflecting the upward trend in futures [5]. - Analysts expect a short-term supply-demand gap due to strong downstream stocking activities and robust overseas storage demand [7]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The suspension of the Jiangxiawo mine is expected to reduce monthly supply by 0.9 million tons, altering the supply-demand balance significantly [4]. - The carbon lithium production for the week was reported at 19,556 tons, an increase of 2,288 tons from the previous week, indicating some stability in upstream production despite recent disruptions [8]. - The inventory of carbon lithium at smelting plants decreased by 13% month-on-month, suggesting a tightening supply situation [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the lithium battery demand growth rate could reach 16%-21% by 2026, with the supply surplus cycle expected to end, leading to a recovery in profitability for the lithium battery sector [4]. - There is speculation that carbon lithium futures could rise to 100,000 yuan/ton, driven by market sentiment and the ongoing supply constraints [10]. - Long-term, the price of carbon lithium is expected to stabilize due to cost support and improving fundamentals, with a noted limit on downward price movement as many lithium mining companies are nearing their cost lines [11].