预期美国滞胀且美联储降息空间有限，德银建议做空十年期美债

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank's strategist team believes that the U.S. economy is facing stagflation risks due to supply-side shocks, recommending short positions on 10-year U.S. Treasuries [1] Economic Impact of Tariffs and Immigration Policies - The bank expects core CPI inflation to rise by approximately 0.5 percentage points in the coming months due to tariff impacts, significantly above market consensus [2] - Tariff policies are likened to a combination of VAT increases and negative supply shocks, with tariffs impacting low-income households more than high-income groups, leading to a mild negative effect on overall demand [4] - Stricter immigration policies further exacerbate labor market supply shocks, potentially lowering the non-farm employment growth equilibrium to a range of 50,000 to 100,000 jobs [4] Labor Market Analysis - Despite recent weak employment data, Deutsche Bank believes initial expectations have not materially changed, with the latest non-farm employment growth slightly below the equilibrium range [5] - The bank notes that the unemployment claims data has not triggered the Sam Rule, and wage growth remains resilient, consistent with interpretations of negative supply shocks [5] Inflation Risks and Interest Rates - Deutsche Bank's analysis indicates significant upside risks to inflation, with core CPI month-on-month growth expected to be in the range of 0.3% to 0.4% [11] - The current market pricing of the terminal rate at around 3% is considered low compared to a neutral real rate close to 2%, suggesting that the market may be underpricing future inflation [11] Investment Strategy - Deutsche Bank recommends shorting 10-year U.S. Treasuries, with a target yield of 4.60% and a stop-loss at 4.05%, citing technical and seasonal factors supporting this strategy [12] - For investors looking to hedge spread risks, the bank suggests going long on 10-year SOFR with a target of 4.10% and a stop-loss at 3.55% [12]