Northeast Securities(SZ:000686) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-12 07:09Core Viewpoint - The tea beverage industry is experiencing a rapid chain development, with the clearance of single brands occurring faster than in other sectors, particularly in the affordable tea segment which has a strong ecological advantage and a clear competitive landscape [1][2] Industry Review - The industry saw a peak in operational data in 2023, with a potential harvest year in 2025. The year 2023 experienced a rebound expansion post-reopening, while 2024 is expected to witness intense price wars leading to the accelerated clearance of mid-sized brands and further concentration among leading brands [1] - By Q3 2024, major brands like Heytea announced a reduction in promotional efforts, prompting others like Mixue and Gu Ming to follow suit, with the price war expected to conclude by Q4 2024 [1] Competitive Landscape - The tea beverage sector is characterized by structural competition, with the affordable tea segment exhibiting a strong ecological advantage and a notably clear competitive structure compared to other segments in the food and beverage industry [2] Demand Side - The demand for affordable tea is stable, driven by two main factors: it targets a price-sensitive customer base at the bottom of the demand pyramid, and it has outperformed soft drinks in terms of cost-effectiveness, attracting some of their demand [3] Supply Side - The industry features two business models: the mainstream "industrial model" prevalent in the affordable tea segment and the "agricultural model" in the mid-to-high price segments. The industrial model benefits from high levels of integration across the supply chain, making it easier to achieve a positive feedback loop of scale, cost, and barriers to entry [4] - The affordable tea business model operates as a convenient store for ready-made beverages, offering several advantages over soft drinks and ensuring profitability for franchisees, consumers, and companies alike [4]