Bank of America(US:BAC) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-12 13:42Macro and Policy Insights - 68% of respondents predict a soft landing for the U.S. economy, while 22% believe it will not land, and only 5% are preparing for a hard landing [2] - Global growth expectations remain weak, with a net -41% indicating a pessimistic outlook [2] - Optimism regarding interest rate cuts has reached its highest level since December 2024 [2] - 54% of respondents believe the next Federal Reserve chair will use quantitative easing (QE) or yield curve control (YCC) to alleviate U.S. debt burdens [2] - The expected final tariff rate for the U.S. on other countries is 15%, up from 14% in July [2] Risks, Crowded Trades, and AI Insights - Tail risks from trade wars and U.S. recession have decreased to 29%, while inflation and the Fed not cutting rates account for 27% [3] - The risk of an AI bubble has increased to 14%, with 52% of respondents believing there is no AI bubble [3] - "Long the 'Magnificent 7' stocks" remains the most crowded trade at 45% [3] Asset Allocation - The global equity overweight ratio (net 14%) is the highest since February 2025 [4] - Funds are shifting from the Eurozone (overweight 24%) to emerging markets (overweight 37%, the highest since February 2023), Japan (underweight 2%), and the U.S. (underweight 16%) [4] - 91% of respondents believe U.S. stocks are overvalued, a record high [4] - There is a shift in funds from healthcare (lowest overweight since February 2018) to utilities, energy, and financial sectors [4] - 33% of investors wish to increase hedges against a weakening dollar, down from a recent high of 40% in May [4] Cryptocurrency and Gold Insights - Only 9% of investors hold cryptocurrencies, with an average allocation of 3.2%; excluding 75% of non-holders, the overall exposure to cryptocurrencies is 0.3% [5] - 48% of investors hold gold, with an average allocation of 4.1%; excluding 41% of non-holders, the overall exposure to gold is 2.2% [5] Contrarian Trading Strategies - Based on current fund manager positions, the best contrarian long positions for August are U.S. cash, Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), and healthcare; the best contrarian short positions are stocks, emerging markets, banks, and utilities [6]