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中金:首予康耐特光学跑赢行业评级 目标价54.00港元

Core Viewpoint - CICC initiates coverage on Conant Optical (02276) with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 54.00, based on a P/E valuation method corresponding to a 35x P/E for 2026, with expected EPS of 1.14 and 1.42 for 2025 and 2026 respectively, indicating a CAGR of 26% from 2024 to 2026 [1] Group 1: Industry Growth and Market Potential - Traditional lens market is expected to grow steadily, with Frost & Sullivan projecting global lens sales to reach approximately USD 8.2 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 5.8% from 2024 to 2029. China is the largest lens producer globally, accounting for 26% of global exports in 2024, with the company being the second-largest resin lens seller worldwide [2] - The AI glasses market is experiencing rapid expansion, with Wellsenn forecasting global sales to exceed 10 million units for the first time in 2026, and Frost & Sullivan predicting sales to surpass RMB 100 billion by 2029. Major tech companies are launching products and investing in R&D, establishing a clear first-mover advantage [2] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships and Supply Chain - The company has a deep partnership with Mitsui Chemicals, ensuring stable customer collaboration. The availability of raw materials is relatively stable, with high-index lens materials being monopolized by Mitsui. The company is the longest-standing domestic partner of Mitsui, offering a comprehensive product range [3] - The company employs a C2M model with a flexible production line capable of handling 7 million SKUs, achieving delivery within 2-3 days, which reduces intermediaries and improves inventory turnover and response speed compared to traditional multi-layer distribution [3] - The company has long-term contracts with global leaders like Luxottica and Essilor, resulting in high order stickiness. Additionally, the company is accelerating penetration into the domestic market through its own brand, which has become a major source of revenue growth [3] Group 3: Brand Development and Technological Advancements - The company's own brand is steadily growing, with its revenue share increasing annually and gross margins higher than ODM business, contributing to overall profit improvement [4] - The company is leveraging integrated bonding technology to establish a technological barrier in the smart glasses sector, having collaborated with leading North American clients for development and small-scale orders. Multiple tech companies are simultaneously advancing AR glasses, positioning the company to benefit from industry expansion [4] - The company continues to expand its product line for functional and customized lenses, with such revenue expected to account for over half of total revenue by 2024, maintaining double-digit growth. The youth myopia lens market is concentrated among a few brands, and the company is launching various new specifications while expanding its grassroots hospital collaboration network, with expectations for gradual market share increase [4] Group 4: Market Perception and Catalysts - The company is perceived to be undervalued in terms of its technological barriers in the resin lens sector, with expectations that its market share and product rollout pace in the smart glasses field will exceed market forecasts [5] - Potential catalysts include the expansion of its own brand and the ramp-up of AI glasses production [5]