KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-08-13 02:05Core Viewpoint - Wall Street investment banks believe that Kweichow Moutai's Q2 performance meets market expectations, with the high-end liquor market showing resilience, while the series liquor segment is underperforming due to policy impacts [1][3] Financial Performance - Kweichow Moutai's Q2 revenue grew by 7.3% year-on-year, reaching 39.65 billion RMB, and net profit increased by 5.2% to 18.56 billion RMB [4] - The core product, Moutai liquor, saw an 11% year-on-year revenue growth, contributing significantly to overall profitability [4][5] - The overall sales growth for the first half of the year was 9.1%, indicating the company is on track to meet its annual growth targets [4] Challenges - The series liquor segment experienced a revenue decline of approximately 7% year-on-year, reflecting intensified competition and weak consumer demand in the mid-range market [2][6] - A significant drop in "pre-receivable accounts" by about 45% year-on-year indicates reduced willingness from distributors to stock up, suggesting a channel inventory reduction [2][7] Market Outlook - Investment banks maintain "overweight" or "buy" ratings for Kweichow Moutai, viewing it as a core holding in the Chinese consumer sector despite short-term challenges [3][8] - Current valuations have absorbed negative factors, with forward P/E ratios around 18-19 times, close to the valuation lows seen at the end of 2018 [1][11] - Analysts are closely monitoring potential catalysts for demand recovery, such as the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and anticipated fiscal stimulus policies [8][11]