CGWS(SZ:002939) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-13 03:08Core Viewpoint - The new energy sector is currently in a low-efficiency state of repeated games, with expectations for either continued growth or a cyclical reversal. However, there are signs of positive changes in various dimensions such as prices, performance, policies, and industrial ecology, indicating potential shifts in market dynamics [1] Solar Energy - Demand has been front-loaded, and the effectiveness of supply-side reforms needs to be monitored. The industry requires significant demand growth to drive market expansion, but limited absorption capacity and mismatches between overseas demand and Chinese production capacity complicate recovery. Policy support is essential for the solar industry to return to a positive trajectory [1][2] - The report suggests that achieving a 30-40% clearance of existing capacity is necessary, but multiple factors could hinder this, including increased costs and potential demand issues leading to a situation where prices rise but transactions remain low [2] Energy Storage - The demand for energy storage remains robust, with a focus on changes in market dynamics. Investors are increasingly cautious about low-priced products, emphasizing the need for comprehensive system integration solutions. The competitive landscape is expected to improve, with reasonable gross margins projected to settle between 20-25% [3] - The distributed energy storage market is undergoing significant changes, with new entrants emerging while established companies struggle to adapt to new market conditions. The competitive environment is likely to see further reshuffling as companies navigate these challenges [4] Lithium Battery - The industry faces challenges in pricing and demand, with key segments like iron lithium and negative electrodes not achieving expected price increases. The actual supply-demand dynamics have not met market expectations, leading to low utilization rates of around 60-65% across the lithium battery supply chain [5][6] - Battery manufacturers are increasingly focused on controlling upstream supply chains and forming strategic partnerships, which may delay the cyclical recovery of material costs. The competitive landscape is expected to evolve, with a need for continuous cost reduction and technological advancement among material suppliers [6]