煤炭“反内卷”和供给侧改革对比研究

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "involutionary competition" in the coal industry, highlighting the need for effective measures to address this issue and promote high-quality economic development through supply-demand balance [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Background and Goals - The supply-side reform from 2016 to 2018 aimed to address severe overcapacity in the coal industry, with over 80% of companies facing losses, by eliminating outdated capacity and optimizing the industry structure [5]. - The "anti-involution" initiative launched in 2025 focuses on regulating market order and curbing disorderly competition due to declining coal demand and price drops, with a goal to stabilize coal prices and enhance supply quality [6]. Group 2: Policy Measures and Implementation Paths - The supply-side reform employed rigid measures to eliminate capacity, including banning new capacity and enforcing production limits [7][8]. - The "anti-involution" approach combines administrative and market mechanisms, emphasizing self-discipline among enterprises and strict control over excessive production [10][11]. Group 3: Policy Effects Comparison - The supply-side reform led to a significant reduction in coal production capacity from 573 million tons in 2016 to 440 million tons in 2017, improving capacity utilization from 59.53% to 77.82% [13][14]. - The "anti-involution" measures have resulted in a rebound in coal prices, with futures contracts rising from a low of 709 yuan/ton to a peak of 1288.5 yuan/ton by August 2025, indicating potential for further price increases if strict production checks continue [15]. Group 4: Policy Synergy and Differences - Both policies aim to resolve overcapacity and inefficient competition, promoting high-quality development in the coal industry [16]. - The supply-side reform focuses on reducing existing capacity, while the "anti-involution" strategy emphasizes controlling new capacity growth, with the former relying on administrative orders and the latter on market mechanisms [18]. Group 5: Thoughts on Coal "Anti-Involution" - The "anti-involution" initiative is primarily targeted at industries with severe overcapacity, and the coal market is currently not in a state of overcapacity, especially for coking coal, which remains in short supply [19]. - The article suggests that excessive constraints on supply could lead to significant price increases, adversely affecting downstream enterprises and consumers [19][20]. Group 6: Conclusion - The coal "anti-involution" represents a deepening and extension of supply-side reforms, combining flexible regulation to stabilize market order with rigid capacity reduction to reshape the industry landscape [21].