CATL(SZ:300750) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-13 06:57Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reports that CATL's Jiangxi lithium mine is expected to be offline for at least three months, which could impact the projected supply surplus for 2025, previously estimated at 4% of global supply [1][2] - The mine's production was expected to be 58,500 tons this year, contributing approximately 4% to global lithium production, and the shutdown will further reduce the forecasted surplus for 2025 [1][2] - The company is seeking to renew its expired mining license, which requires approval from the Ministry of Natural Resources, potentially leading to longer delays in resuming production [2] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley indicates that lithium prices may have temporarily bottomed out, with supply and demand expected to grow at the same rate by 2025, but a slight surplus of 60,000 tons is anticipated for 2024 [3] - The market is expected to gradually balance out for the remainder of the year, which could lead to upward price risks, depending on the duration of supply disruptions [3][4] - The recent supply interruptions, combined with self-discipline from other suppliers in a low-price environment, may support current lithium prices, although high inventory levels remain a concern [4]