从日赚超3亿到日赚2.5亿，茅台业绩慢下来

Core Viewpoint - Kweichow Moutai's revenue and net profit growth rates have both dropped to single digits for the first time, leading to cautious market sentiment and a decline in stock price [1][4][9] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Kweichow Moutai reported total revenue of 454.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 454.03 billion yuan, up 8.89% [4][6] - The daily average profit for the first half was approximately 250 million yuan, reflecting a slowdown compared to the previous year [6] - In comparison, for 2024, total revenue was 1,741.44 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.66%, and net profit was 862.28 billion yuan, up 15.38% [6] Product Performance - Moutai liquor generated revenue of 755.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.24%, remaining the core growth driver [6] - Series liquor revenue was 137.63 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.69%, but net profit decreased by 15.31%, indicating increased competition in the mid-range market [6] Sales Channels - Direct sales revenue reached 400.1 billion yuan, up 18.6%, accounting for 44.76% of total revenue [7] - Wholesale and agency revenue was 493.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.83%, making up over 55% of total revenue [7] Industry Context - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period characterized by policy changes, consumption structure transformation, and intensified competition [9][10] - The China Alcoholic Drinks Association and KPMG reported that 60% of companies are experiencing price inversion, indicating market supply-demand imbalance [10] Internal Challenges - Kweichow Moutai's contract liabilities decreased by 42.59% year-on-year to 55.07 billion yuan, suggesting reduced enthusiasm from distributors [11] - Operating cash flow net amount fell by 64.18% year-on-year to 131.19 billion yuan, potentially due to regulatory reserve and deposit disturbances [11]