90天休战期延长：特朗普终于签字了，美国对华认输，英伟达被收割

Group 1: Trade Dynamics - The U.S. is pressuring China to increase purchases of American soybeans, reflecting political pressure from agricultural states and a significant drop in soybean exports to China from a peak of 32.5 million tons in 2017 [1] - China's diversification of import sources has led to Brazil surpassing the U.S. as the largest soybean supplier to China in 2023, making U.S. soybeans a "optional" rather than a "necessary" commodity [3] Group 2: Impact on U.S. Tech Industry - The Trump administration's new policy requires U.S. chip companies like Nvidia to pay a 15% "export coordination fee" on sales to China, which is unprecedented in global trade history [5] - This additional cost will erode profit margins and weaken R&D capabilities for companies like Nvidia, which derives over 20% of its data center chip revenue from China [7][8] Group 3: Strategic Dilemmas - The U.S. government's actions reflect a deeper strategic dilemma, balancing the need to appease agricultural voters while maintaining a goal to curb China's technological advancements [7] - Historical context shows that U.S. trade bullying has not led to victory, as seen in the 1980s with Japan's semiconductor industry, which ultimately accelerated the rise of South Korea and Taiwan [10] Group 4: Consequences of Trade Restrictions - Current restrictions on chip exports to China may paradoxically accelerate China's self-reliance in technology, as evidenced by Applied Materials reporting that 27% of its sales in Q1 2024 were still to China [12] - Southeast Asian countries are seizing the opportunity to attract high-tech industries amid U.S.-China tensions, indicating that trade wars can be a double-edged sword [14] Group 5: Overall Trade War Outcomes - The trade war has shown three major failures: declining agricultural exports undermining voter bases, tech companies being forced to pay high fees that weaken competitiveness, and technology restrictions inadvertently boosting Chinese innovation [14] - The true losers of the trade war are the businesses and farmers caught in political crossfire, highlighting the absurdity of unilateral pressure tactics [18]