HBM4，箭在弦上

Core Insights - HBM has evolved from a niche product to a core component of the AI revolution, effectively breaking through traditional memory bottlenecks and significantly enhancing bandwidth and data transfer efficiency [1][2] - The competitive landscape of the HBM market is dominated by SK Hynix and Samsung, which together hold over 90% market share, while Micron is positioned as a follower [1][2] - The race for the next generation of HBM, specifically HBM4, is intensifying among these major players, with each company showcasing their advancements at the Flash Memory Summit [1][2] HBM Market Dynamics - SK Hynix emphasizes the balance between performance and efficiency in HBM, positioning it as "near-memory" technology that offers higher bandwidth and faster response times compared to traditional DRAM [2] - The transition from HBM3E to HBM4 represents a significant leap, with bandwidth increasing by 200%, showcasing HBM4's potential for high-performance applications [2][3] - Samsung's HBM roadmap indicates a steady increase in bandwidth from HBM2 (307 GB/s) to HBM4 (projected 2.048 TB/s by 2026), highlighting the ongoing advancements in memory technology [4][6] Technological Advancements - HBM4 features a maximum capacity of 36GB and bandwidth exceeding 2TB/s, with a 60% overall improvement in performance metrics compared to previous generations [3][4] - Samsung's innovative packaging technology, HCB, allows for increased stacking layers and improved thermal management, which is crucial for high-performance applications [7][8] - Micron is also making strides in HBM technology, planning to launch HBM4 with a focus on higher bandwidth and energy efficiency, despite entering the market later than its competitors [8][9] Market Growth Projections - The global HBM market is expected to grow from $17 billion in 2024 to $98 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33% [16][17] - HBM's revenue share in the DRAM market is projected to increase from 18% in 2024 to 50% by 2030, indicating its rising importance and value [16][17] - Despite the anticipated growth, the market may face cyclical adjustments, with potential oversupply issues as major suppliers ramp up production [18][20] Manufacturing Complexity - The manufacturing process for HBM is intricate, involving multiple steps that require advancements in both front-end and back-end processes to enhance bandwidth and die density [10][11] - Different companies employ various stacking technologies, with SK Hynix utilizing MR-MUF and Samsung and Micron primarily using TC-NCF [10][11] - Future HBM generations may adopt new bonding technologies, with a shift towards customized HBM architectures to improve system performance and reduce total cost of ownership [12][13]