Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-14 10:34Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times this year, each by 25 basis points, and two more times next year, bringing the federal funds rate down to a range of 3% to 3.25% from the current 4.25% to 4.5% [1] - As of the evening of the 13th, the U.S. interest rate futures market shows a 93% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a 7% probability for a 50 basis point cut [1] - The probability of a 50 basis point cut increased due to comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet, who suggested that a significant rate cut is feasible given recent weak employment data [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Department reported that the non-farm payroll data for July was significantly weaker than market expectations, with the unemployment rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% and only 73,000 new jobs added, below the expected 110,000 [1] - The job additions for May and June were also revised down significantly, indicating a noticeable cooling in the U.S. labor market [1]