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金蝶国际(00268.HK):订阅转型持续深化 AI商业化提速

Core Viewpoint - Kingdee International's revenue for the first half of 2025 grew by 11.2% year-on-year to 3.19 billion yuan, while the net loss attributable to shareholders narrowed from 218 million yuan to 97.74 million yuan, slightly exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations due to cautious decision-making by enterprises amid a weak macroeconomic backdrop [1][2] Group 1: Revenue and Growth - The company's total revenue growth of 11.2% was consistent with the previous year, despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties [1] - Cloud subscription revenue increased by 22.1% year-on-year to 1.684 billion yuan, accounting for 52.8% of total revenue, up from 48.1% in the same period last year [1] - The revenue from the Cangqiong and Xinghan cloud subscriptions grew by 41.1% to 276 million yuan, representing 32.7% of product revenue [1] - New customer acquisitions included 304 for Cangqiong and Xinghan, and 518 for the national and provincial specialized enterprises [1] Group 2: Cost Management and Profitability - The gross margin improved by 2.4 percentage points to 65.6%, driven by the increasing proportion of high-margin subscription revenue [2] - The operating loss narrowed from 317 million yuan to 175 million yuan, with a corresponding loss rate reduction of 5.6 percentage points [2] - The company aims to achieve profitability and over 1 billion yuan in operating cash flow for the full year of 2025, with a long-term goal of exceeding 3 billion yuan in operating cash flow by 2030 [2] Group 3: Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were lowered by 1.5% and 2.6% to 6.99 billion yuan and 7.89 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 and 2026 was reduced by 11.8% and 5.1% to 173 million yuan and 455 million yuan, respectively [2] - The target price is maintained at 17 HKD, with an upward adjustment of the 2025 P/OCF from 40 times to 43 times, indicating a 6% upside potential [2]