贵州茅台2025半年考：合同负债几近腰斩，经销商断供信号加剧？

Core Insights - Guizhou Moutai is facing its most severe growth challenges since 2016, with revenue growth slowing to single digits for the first time in a decade [1][2] - The company's contract liabilities have dropped significantly by 42.59%, indicating reduced purchasing enthusiasm from distributors [1][7] - The price of the flagship product, Feitian Moutai, has fallen below the psychological threshold of 2000 RMB per bottle, reflecting a decline in demand and financial attributes [11][13] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Guizhou Moutai reported total revenue of approximately 893.89 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 9.10%, and a net profit of about 454.03 billion RMB, up 8.89% [2][3] - The operating cash flow has decreased by 64.18%, indicating a significant decline in cash generation capabilities [2][4] - The second quarter revenue was approximately 387.88 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 7.28%, and net profit of about 185.55 billion RMB, growing by 5.25% [3] Market Dynamics - The core product, Moutai liquor, generated revenue of approximately 755.9 billion RMB, growing by 10.24%, while the series liquor segment only saw a 4.68% increase, indicating a slowdown in the mid-range market [4][5] - Direct sales revenue increased by 18.63% to 400.10 billion RMB, while wholesale and agency channels grew by only 2.83% to 493.43 billion RMB, reflecting a mixed performance in channel management [4][5] Strategic Adjustments - The decline in contract liabilities is attributed to a strategic adjustment by the company to ease cash flow pressures on distributors, rather than solely a drop in demand [7][9] - The increase in accounts receivable and notes receivable suggests that the company may be extending credit terms to support its distribution network [8][9] Pricing Pressure - The price of Feitian Moutai has dropped to 1860 RMB per bottle, down from 2220 RMB at the beginning of the year, indicating a significant price decline in the high-end market [11][13] - The company has halted production of its Taoyuan liquor due to severe price discrepancies and excess inventory, reflecting broader challenges in the market [13][18]