Sublime China Information (SZ:301299) Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-08-15 00:41Core Viewpoint - The domestic urea market is experiencing mixed performance with significant regional disparities, as prices for low-end urea have dropped below 1700 yuan/ton in major production areas, while some regions see slight rebounds [1][2]. Price Trends - As of August 13, urea futures prices fell, with the main contract closing at 1726 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.76% [2]. - The price of urea in Xinjiang has decreased by 30 yuan/ton, reaching 1450 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Urea supply remains abundant, with daily production levels consistently high, leading to a situation where the market is not lacking in supply [3]. - Urea companies reported an increase in inventory, with stocks reaching 957,400 tons, up by 6,980 tons or 7.86% from the previous week [3]. - The agricultural demand for urea is currently weak due to seasonal factors, contributing to a lack of market confidence [2][3]. Future Outlook - There is an optimistic expectation for over 3 million tons of urea exports in the third quarter, primarily concentrated from July to September, coinciding with the peak season for autumn fertilizers [3]. - The production cost for urea is expected to provide strong support around the 1700 yuan/ton mark, limiting further price adjustments [4]. - Short-term price fluctuations are anticipated, with potential for a rebound in late August due to seasonal demand for autumn fertilizers [4].