东北证券：政策推动全年乘用车内需持续向好 新能源+出海助力自主腾飞

Core Insights - The cumulative sales of passenger cars in China from January to June 2025 reached 10.488 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.9%, primarily driven by government subsidy policies that stimulated domestic demand [1] - The market share of fuel vehicles remained stable at 59.0%, while the market share of plug-in hybrid vehicles increased to 28.7%, and pure electric vehicles saw a decline to 12.4%, resulting in an overall new energy penetration rate of 41.0% [1] - The export volume of passenger cars in China for the first half of 2025 was 2.478 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, with the share of new energy vehicles in exports rising significantly [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In the price range of 50,000 to 200,000 yuan, wholesale sales reached 9.266 million units, a year-on-year increase of 16%, with fuel vehicle market share at 56.1% and pure electric vehicles growing to 26.1%, leading to an overall new energy penetration rate of 44.9% [2] - In the price range of 200,000 to 300,000 yuan, wholesale sales were 1.969 million units, down 1.0%, with fuel vehicle market share at 32.5% and pure electric vehicles at 46.2%, indicating a strong presence of domestic brands [2] - In the price range above 300,000 yuan, wholesale sales were 1.484 million units, down 7.0%, with fuel vehicle market share stable at 59.0% and plug-in hybrids at 28.7%, while pure electric vehicles declined to 12.4% [2] Group 2: Future Outlook - The expansion of policies at the beginning of 2025 is expected to continue supporting domestic demand, with retail sales projected to reach 23.88 million units, a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, and export sales expected to grow by 10% [3] - The new energy retail sales are anticipated to reach 14.33 million units in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.4%, driven by tax incentives for new energy vehicle purchases [3]