美国陷入虚假繁荣？五大迹象暴露经济的脆弱性

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy appears stable, but deeper analysis suggests rising risks of economic engine failure, particularly when excluding AI and tech-related spending [1] - Significant investments in AI may take years to yield returns, raising concerns about long-term economic balance and potential poor investment and policy decisions [1] Corporate Investment Imbalance - Since the end of 2019, inflation-adjusted investment in "AI-sensitive sectors" has increased by 53%, while investment in other sectors has only grown by 0.3% [2] Decline in Non-AI Economic Contributions - Software and IT equipment capital expenditures have reached a historical high contribution to U.S. GDP, yet total capital expenditures in all other sectors have declined in the first half of the year, a rare occurrence [3] Consumer Spending Slowdown - Personal consumption expenditures have significantly slowed, with a growth rate of only 0.9% in Q2, the slowest since the pandemic began, and actual consumption spending has stagnated in the first half of the year [4] Increase in Corporate Bankruptcies - July saw the highest number of corporate bankruptcies since July 2020, with the year-to-date total being the highest since 2010, and nearly one-third of these cases originating from non-essential consumer goods and industrial sectors [5] Market Concentration Issues - The concentration of the market is notable, with Nvidia alone accounting for 8% of the S&P 500 index's total market capitalization, a record high for a single stock [6] - The top 10 stocks, mostly large tech giants, represent 40% of the index's market value and contribute 30% of its earnings, both at record levels, raising concerns about potential market disruption if the performance trends of these companies falter [6]