Core Viewpoint - After more than a year since the departure of Dong Yuhui, the stock price of Dongfang Zhenxuan has seemingly emerged from a low period, with significant increases observed in recent months [1][3]. Stock Performance - As of August 15, Dongfang Zhenxuan's stock price surged by 17.9%, with a total market capitalization exceeding 43 billion HKD. Since July, the stock has accumulated a rise of nearly 248%, and from the low point of 8.92 HKD per share after Dong Yuhui's exit, the increase has reached 357% [3][4]. - The stock's recent performance is closely tied to market expectations of a recovery in its financial performance, with the upcoming quarterly report set to be disclosed on August 22 [6]. Financial Performance - The performance report from New Oriental for the period from March to May 2025 indicates an estimated revenue of approximately 150 million USD for the fourth quarter, reflecting a year-on-year decline of about 30%, although the decline is narrowing compared to previous quarters. The non-GAAP operating profit is estimated at around 79 million RMB, corresponding to an operating profit margin of about 7%, showing a quarter-on-quarter improvement [6][14]. - In the first half of 2025, Dongfang Zhenxuan's self-operated product gross margin improved significantly from 10% in the second half of 2024 to 21% in the first half of 2025, with operating profit margin rising from 3% to 7% [14]. Business Strategy - Following the departure of key hosts, Dongfang Zhenxuan has shifted its business strategy to reduce reliance on individual hosts, focusing on self-operated products and a membership system as the two main drivers of its new business model [9]. - The company has launched a variety of self-operated products, achieving impressive sales figures, such as over 36,000 units of coconut water sold in a single day and cumulative sales of over 2.6 billion self-operated sausages [9][13]. Membership Growth - Dongfang Zhenxuan introduced a paid membership system in October 2023, becoming the first live-streaming platform to implement such a model. As of the mid-2025 financial report, the number of paid members reached 228,000, nearly doubling year-on-year, with member repurchase rates significantly higher than non-members [14]. Institutional Investment Trends - Throughout 2023, institutional investors have been cautious, with a notable reduction in holdings. By the end of the first quarter, the total number of shares held by mainland public funds decreased by 40.19%, with significant reductions from major funds [16][20]. - The mid-2025 financial report revealed a net loss of approximately 96.5 million RMB for the core business, a stark contrast to a profit of 160 million RMB in the same period the previous year, which may have contributed to the cautious stance of institutional investors [20][21]. Market Outlook - Analysts from various securities firms have expressed optimism regarding Dongfang Zhenxuan's recovery, highlighting the company's transition from a host-driven model to a product-driven approach as a key factor for future growth [21][22].
董宇辉单飞1年，400亿东方甄选股价大涨3倍，机构狂减持