美银：若2025年美联储降息或致美元走弱

Core Insights - Bank of America suggests that if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in 2025, it is likely to occur in the context of rising year-on-year inflation, a scenario that is historically rare [1][3] - The report indicates that implementing rate cuts during a period of rising inflation would lower the real policy rate in the U.S., leading to a weaker dollar, similar to the situation observed from late 2007 to mid-2008 [1][3] Summary by Categories - Interest Rate Outlook - The potential for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in 2025 is linked to an increase in year-on-year inflation [1][3] - Such a scenario has not been common historically, with the last occurrence noted between late 2007 and mid-2008 [1][3] - Impact on Currency - A rate cut during rising inflation would result in a decrease in the real policy rate, which is expected to weaken the U.S. dollar [1][3] - This situation is compared to the economic conditions experienced in 2007 [1][3]