Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-18 01:45Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that the current favorable market conditions may soon come to an end, with potential risks leading to significant market corrections [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. stock market continues to rebound, supported by stable growth, moderate inflation, and strong earnings reports, with significant investments in artificial intelligence and expectations of interest rate cuts boosting large tech stocks [1] - The stability of the market is underpinned by a "volatility reset" mechanism, where investors accept lower returns on high-risk assets to avoid severe fluctuations [1] Group 2: Risks and Warnings - Goldman Sachs highlights that the current "Goldilocks" state (neither overheating nor cooling economy) is often accompanied by low volatility and stable returns, but warns that a slowdown in economic growth or a shift towards tighter Federal Reserve policies could quickly turn the calm into a market storm [1] - The risk of a market "pullback" (a rapid short-term decline) is increasing, driven by high valuations in the U.S. stock market and signs of weakening in the business cycle [1] - The S&P 500 index is expected to continue reaching historical highs through 2025, but the market's tolerance for error is extremely compressed due to near "perfect pricing" [1] Group 3: Market Structure and Concentration - The rebound in the U.S. stock market is heavily reliant on a few large tech stocks, which masks broader market participation deficiencies and poses hidden risks; if these tech giants face setbacks or the market loses upward momentum, a chain reaction could ensue [2] - Goldman Sachs notes an increase in retail speculation, indicating a potential for heightened market volatility in the second half of the year [3] Group 4: Macro Challenges - Multiple macro challenges could exacerbate market volatility, including the ongoing impact of tariff policies on global growth, uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's policy path, and escalating geopolitical tensions [3] - According to Goldman Sachs' baseline scenario, these macro headwinds have the potential to worsen further [3]