Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the profit forecast for Honghua Smart Energy (01083) for 2025 and 2026, with a target price of HKD 5.00, indicating a 16.3% upside potential from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's 1H25 performance is in line with market expectations, reporting revenue of HKD 10.44 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, and a net profit of HKD 758 million, a year-on-year increase of 2% [2] - Core business profit for 1H25 is HKD 719 million, also reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2%, with the company proposing a first-time interim dividend of HKD 0.05 per share [2] - Natural gas sales volume for 1H25 is 8.75 billion cubic meters, remaining flat year-on-year, with a city gas price difference of HKD 0.57 per cubic meter, up by HKD 0.01 year-on-year [2] - The gas business operating profit for 1H25 is HKD 852 million, down by 1% year-on-year [2] - Photovoltaic power generation for 1H25 is 1.18 billion KWh, a year-on-year increase of 44%, with a gross profit of HKD 0.36 per KWh, down by HKD 0.04 year-on-year [2] - As of the end of 1H25, the company's photovoltaic grid-connected capacity is 2.6 GW, with renewable energy business operating profit of HKD 170 million, a year-on-year increase of 5% [2] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - To address the impact of the "Document No. 136" on distributed photovoltaic business profitability, the company plans to increase investment in commercial and industrial energy storage and leverage AI algorithms, rooftop photovoltaics, and customer resources in the city gas sector to expand its electricity sales business [3] - The company aims to transform into a leading global smart energy aggregation service provider, targeting a management capacity of 12 GW for photovoltaic installations and 6 GWh for energy storage by 2030 [3] Group 3: Capital Expenditure - The company's capital expenditure for 1H25 is HKD 1.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 30%, with expectations for continued decline in capital expenditure in 2H25 [4] - The annual capital expenditure is projected to decrease to HKD 2.5-3.0 billion, as the company maintains strict control over capital spending and aims to push some distributed photovoltaic installations off-balance sheet [4] - The company’s interest-bearing debt is expected to remain stable or decrease gradually [4]
中金：维持港华智慧能源跑赢行业评级 目标价5港元