美股的平静或是“波动的先兆”，摩根大通：保持警惕

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the cautious optimism surrounding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, which have led to historical highs in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, but warns of limited short-term upside for risk assets [1][2] - Morgan Stanley analysts suggest that while the market is currently in an ideal "Goldilocks" state, investors should remain vigilant about macroeconomic risks that could lead to a market pullback [2][3] - The report anticipates a potential 5-10% correction in the S&P 500, with a target range of 5800-6000 points, should economic weakness signals become pronounced [1][2] Group 2 - Inflation is expected to remain sticky, with recent CPI and PPI data aligning with forecasts, indicating upward pressure on prices due to tariffs [3] - Despite the inflation concerns, Morgan Stanley maintains its prediction of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, driven by risk management considerations amid soft employment data [3] - The report emphasizes that the decision to maintain current policy rates will depend heavily on upcoming inflation and employment data [3] Group 3 - Geopolitical risks have resurfaced, particularly with the upcoming meeting between Russian President Putin and U.S. President Trump, which has increased market optimism regarding a potential ceasefire in Ukraine [4] - However, Morgan Stanley expresses skepticism about the sustainability of any peace agreement, citing unchanged fundamental goals from Russia regarding Ukraine's NATO and EU aspirations [4] Group 4 - Morgan Stanley recommends a cautious cross-asset strategy, advising a reduction in risk assets and a bearish outlook on the U.S. dollar [5] - The firm favors defensive sectors over cyclical ones in the stock market and sees European equities as undervalued compared to U.S. stocks [5] - In the fixed income space, emerging market rates are viewed as more attractive, particularly in Brazil and Mexico, while the firm suggests shorting copper as part of a hedging strategy [5]