Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the earnings forecast for Dekang Agriculture (02419) for 2025/26, with a target price of HKD 111, indicating a 33% upside potential from the current price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Dekang Agriculture reported 1H25 revenue of CNY 11.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%, and net profit of CNY 1.27 billion, up 250.6%, aligning with CICC's expectations [2] - The significant growth in performance is attributed to improved management efficiency and a decrease in pig costs [2] Group 2: Business Segments - The swine business continues to expand with high quality, contributing to revenue growth; 1H25 swine revenue increased by 32.6% to CNY 9.88 billion, with sales volume up 27.1% to 5.1174 million heads [3] - Poultry business remains stable, with 1H25 revenue of CNY 1.34 billion and a 7.2% increase in yellow feather chicken sales to 43 million birds [3] - The slaughtering and ancillary products segment also saw growth, with revenue up 16.1% to CNY 480 million and slaughter volume increasing by 18.5% to 249,000 heads [3] Group 3: Cost and Financial Health - Dekang Agriculture maintains a leading cost advantage in the industry, with 1H25 swine production costs below CNY 12.5 per kilogram, and a PSY of 27 heads per year, also industry-leading [4] - The company's asset-liability ratio improved to 59.9% in 1H25, down 14.3 percentage points from 1H24, indicating ongoing financial health [4] Group 4: Growth Strategy and Value Recovery - The company employs a light-asset model with a unique breeding farm system, achieving lower capital expenditure and binding closely with cooperative farmers; the average breeding fee reached CNY 800,000 per farm, up 15.5% [5] - Dekang Agriculture leverages superior breeding technology and precise nutrition to maintain low-cost advantages, with expectations for continued excess profits per head [5] - Following the release of the 2024 annual report, the company's growth narrative has gained recognition, and liquidity improvements have led to value recovery, with an estimated market value of CNY 2,623 per head, indicating potential for further valuation enhancement [5]
中金：维持德康农牧跑赢行业评级 目标价111港元