降息预期太乐观了？美国“粘性通胀”正在重新加速

Core Insights - JPMorgan warns that U.S. inflation is proving to be more stubborn than expected, with multiple alternative inflation indicators suggesting that the disinflation process has stalled and core inflation is accelerating again [1][9] - The market's optimistic interpretation of the July CPI report may be misplaced, as various underlying inflation metrics indicate that inflation has not continued to decline and core inflation's sticky components are re-accelerating [1][5] Inflation Indicators - According to the Atlanta Fed, the sticky components of the traditional core CPI are slightly above pre-pandemic averages and have recently accelerated [2] - The Cleveland Fed's trimmed mean and median inflation indicators provide a more reliable assessment of inflation trends, with the trimmed mean inflation rebounding from 3.0% in April to 3.2% in July, and median inflation rising from a pre-pandemic average of 2.6% to the current 3.6% [5][8] Monetary Policy Challenges - The current inflation landscape presents complex challenges for Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions, as multiple alternative core indicators show inflation remains significantly above the Fed's 2% target and may continue to rise [9] - Unless an economic recession occurs, inflation is likely to remain sticky at levels that do not support more aggressive easing policies from the Fed, casting doubt on market expectations for rapid rate cuts [1][9]