“软件已死，AI当立”？

Core Insights - The AI wave is reshaping the tech industry, leading to intense debates about the future of traditional software businesses, particularly following the release of OpenAI's GPT-5, which caused significant market sell-offs and concerns about AI replacing traditional software [1][2] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - The software industry sentiment has turned bearish, with SAP's stock dropping 7.1%, resulting in a market cap loss of nearly €22 billion, marking the largest single-day decline since late 2020 [1] - Goldman Sachs analysts believe that fears regarding AI as a disruptive force are overstated, suggesting that AI could act as a "force multiplier" for leading suppliers rather than a replacement [1][2] - The report anticipates that as enterprise software renewal pressures ease by 2026, AI will contribute positively to key metrics like Net Revenue Retention (NRR), paving the way for sustained growth in the software market [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The debate centers on whether AI-native companies can offer products that are "meaningfully better and cheaper" than traditional SaaS offerings [3] - SaaS giants have established high competitive barriers, making it difficult for AI-native companies to disrupt them, especially in pricing strategies where AI-native firms may threaten traditional seat-based pricing models [3][4] - SaaS leaders are innovating through both organic growth and acquisitions, with notable examples including Salesforce's Agentforce and ServiceNow's acquisitions [3] Group 3: AI Integration Strategies - Major software companies are adopting hybrid AI model strategies, combining proprietary data-driven models with external large language models (LLMs) to enhance their offerings [5][6] - This strategy helps mitigate the risk of being undermined by AI-native newcomers, as it locks customers into familiar and integrated ecosystems [7] - The complexity and critical nature of enterprise software create significant barriers to entry, making it challenging for AI-native products to gain trust and adoption quickly [8] Group 4: Future Indicators to Watch - Key indicators for investors include the stability of NRR, the contribution of AI to revenue growth, customer feedback on SaaS innovations, and the momentum of AI-native companies [10] - For instance, Adobe expects its AI products to contribute $250 million in annual recurring revenue by the end of 2025, which will serve as a critical validation signal for the market [10]