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大摩:预计弱美元背景下人民币小幅升值,人民币资产吸引力会提升!明年3月美联储会开始第一次减息,2026年一共会减息7次

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist for China, Wang Ying, anticipates the Federal Reserve will begin its first rate cut in March 2024, with a total of seven rate cuts expected by 2026 [1] - The timing of the rate cuts may be later than some market expectations, but the overall aggressiveness, magnitude, and frequency of the cuts are still anticipated to be significant [1] Group 2 - Wang Ying believes that as the Federal Reserve opens its rate cut cycle, the US dollar is likely to weaken over the next one to two years, which would be beneficial for Chinese assets [3] - Under a weak dollar scenario, there is an expectation of a slight appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar, and historical data indicates that this situation enhances the attractiveness of Renminbi-denominated assets [3]