绝不低头！高盛再用新报告回击特朗普：劳动力市场将更糟！

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs economists warn that the slowdown in the U.S. job market is not over and may worsen, with hiring momentum weaker than previously thought [2] Employment Trends - Current employment growth levels are too low to sustain full employment, with estimates now significantly below the low standard of 30,000 jobs per month [2] - Key sectors such as healthcare, seasonal hiring, and government modeling of new business are showing signs of weakness [2][3] - Labor force participation rate is declining, job vacancies are decreasing, and hiring activity is slowing to near zero in most sectors [2][3] Implications for Federal Reserve and Government - The slowdown in job growth supports the case for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with expectations of three rate cuts of 25 basis points each in September, October, and December [3] - If hiring remains weak, further rate cuts may occur in 2026 [3] - The slowdown undermines President Trump's narrative of strong job creation as a key economic achievement [3] Structural Changes in Employment - A sharp decline in immigration is putting pressure on job creation, as fewer new jobs are needed to maintain full employment [3] - Stricter immigration policies are likely to reduce the number of immigrant workers in the labor market [3] - Industries like healthcare and education, which previously experienced "catch-up hiring," are no longer showing significant growth, leading to overall job creation fatigue [3][4] Potential Consequences of Continued Weakness - Even mild further weakness in the labor market could have significant consequences, making it harder for unemployed workers and recent graduates to enter the job market [4] - Special factors in the coming months, such as cuts to Federal Reserve staff and stricter immigration enforcement, may further pressure employment [4] - Investors are keen to hear Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's stance on potential rate cuts during his upcoming key policy speech [4]