Group 1 - The market previously worried that with the weakening momentum of "export grabbing," China's exports might face significant downward pressure in the second half of the year, with a risk of a substantial decline in the fourth quarter. The expected annual export growth rate was only around 3%. However, it is believed that due to the resilient economic growth in emerging markets like ASEAN and Africa, as well as improvements in China-Europe trade amid uncertainties in US tariffs, China's exports are likely to continue exceeding expectations in the second half of the year. The projected export growth rates for Q3 and Q4 are 5.9% and 1.0%, respectively, leading to an expected annual growth rate of 4.6%, which is about 1.6 percentage points higher than market expectations, potentially boosting GDP growth by approximately 0.3 percentage points [1][12][14] - The high growth of exports to emerging markets is not solely driven by "export grabbing." The new tariff framework has seen limited adjustments in major transshipment regions, including ASEAN, with most rates still lower than the tariffs imposed on China. Additionally, the actual demand from emerging markets has been a significant driver of high export growth. The manufacturing PMI of emerging markets (excluding China) has consistently been above that of developed countries, indicating stronger demand in regions like ASEAN and Africa [2][12][10] - The uncertainty surrounding US tariffs may continue to support improvements in China-Europe trade. The high growth of exports to the EU this year is partly due to the easing of trade relations between China and the EU amid US-EU trade frictions. Despite existing differences in various economic and trade issues, the EU is unlikely to worsen its economic ties with China, allowing for continued resilience in exports to the EU in the second half of the year [3][13] Group 2 - The US's dual approach of loose monetary and fiscal policies is expected to maintain external demand resilience next year. The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by 150 basis points to around 3% by the end of next year, with a consensus on the continuation of the easing cycle. The new Federal Reserve chair, nominated by Trump, may implement even looser policies in the second half of 2026, further stimulating total demand in the US economy [4][14] - The "Great Beautiful Act" is projected to have a significant positive impact on the US economy over the next 1-3 years. The act is expected to increase US economic output by 1.21% over the next 30 years compared to previous baseline expectations. The act's implementation is characterized by an initial phase of fiscal expansion followed by monetary tightening, which will positively affect the output gap in the US economy during the early years [5][17]
东吴证券:中国出口增速或持续超市场预期