国金证券：全球TACO牛市，谁泡沫更大？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that global market risk appetite has significantly improved following the TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trades, leading to new highs in various stock markets, including developed and emerging markets [1][2] - The primary driver of the recent global stock market rally is the increased dollar liquidity, which is closely linked to U.S. monetary policy and cross-border capital flows [2][3] - The dollar index has declined by 2.4% in the past quarter and 10% year-to-date, contributing to the warming of non-U.S. stock markets [3][6] Group 2 - The actual interest rates on U.S. Treasury bonds have decreased, which influences both U.S. and non-U.S. stock markets, providing a foundation for risk sentiment to be released [6][7] - Global central banks have accelerated their monetary supply, with a notable increase in the growth rate of global central bank money supply by nearly 7 percentage points in the past quarter [7][10] - The cost of offshore dollar financing has decreased, indicating a more favorable liquidity environment for non-U.S. equity markets [10][12] Group 3 - There is a noticeable trend of foreign capital inflow into non-U.S. equity markets, with A-shares seeing a 0.75% increase in foreign ownership value compared to the end of last year [13][19] - Various Asian markets, including Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam, have experienced net foreign inflows since July, contrasting with the net outflows observed over the past 12 months [19][20] - The article discusses how to measure market bubbles, particularly in the U.S. stock market, where concerns about the effectiveness of capital expenditures by tech giants are prevalent [20][22] Group 4 - The "Buffett Indicator" for the U.S. stock market has reached a historical high of 2.1, indicating a significant divergence from the economic output [25][28] - A comparison of current TTM P/E ratios shows that U.S. stocks, Indian stocks, and Vietnamese stocks have higher valuations, while Korean, A-shares, and British stocks are relatively lower [28][29] - The article highlights that the risk premium levels in developed markets are at historical lows, while emerging markets still exhibit higher risk premiums [31][32] Group 5 - The article concludes that the high valuation levels in global equity markets are reflective of abundant dollar liquidity and the potential vulnerabilities in both U.S. and non-U.S. markets due to economic cycles and TACO trades [39][40]