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东方甄选股价坐上过山车,“产品驱动”面临挑战

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Dongfang Zhenxuan (01797.HK) experienced significant volatility, initially rising over 23% before closing down 20.89% due to rumors regarding CEO Zhou Chenggang and commission rates exceeding 30%, which were later denied by the company [2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Dongfang Zhenxuan's stock price increased by 502% from a low of 8.92 HKD on December 31, 2024, to 53.7 HKD [3]. - The stock price surge was driven by optimistic market expectations regarding the company's recent positive developments [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025 Q4, Dongfang Zhenxuan's revenue is projected to be approximately 150 million USD, reflecting a nearly 30% year-over-year decline, although the decline is narrowing quarter-over-quarter [2]. - The company's operating profit under non-GAAP is estimated at 79 million RMB, with an operating profit margin of about 7%, showing a quarter-over-quarter increase of approximately 3% [2]. - The company's net revenue from ongoing operations (self-operated products and live-streaming e-commerce) decreased by 9.3% year-over-year [5]. Group 3: Business Strategy and Challenges - Dongfang Zhenxuan is focusing on self-operated products and supply chain development, aligning with new consumption trends and offering expansion opportunities [3]. - The company is attempting to shift from a host-driven model to a product-driven model, but is still facing challenges due to the departure of several key hosts [5]. - The company needs to establish an effective host team and brand operation model to improve profitability expectations [5]. - In the e-commerce retail sector, Dongfang Zhenxuan faces challenges such as maintaining a high-frequency but low-margin product line, improving supply chain efficiency, and developing a membership system comparable to Sam's Club and Costco [5].