高盛顶尖交易员：未来几个月美股的核心问题是“衰退和降息，谁站上风”

Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is facing a precarious situation with clear signs of weakness in the employment sector and accumulating risks of economic slowdown [1] - Goldman Sachs indicates that the next two months will be crucial for observing the tug-of-war between growth and policy, which will influence the direction of U.S. stocks and bonds [1] - The current challenge for investors is to identify assets that can benefit from anticipated Fed rate cuts while also providing protection against the risk of a deep economic recession [1] Group 2: Employment Market Signals - The July non-farm payroll report, particularly the significant downward revisions of previous months, has shifted market and policymakers' focus towards the "employment" aspect of the Fed's dual mandate [2] - Employment growth has sharply declined across multiple indicators, depicting a labor market scenario of "few hires but no large-scale layoffs," consistent with other signs of economic weakness [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Risks - Goldman Sachs warns that such substantial downward revisions are typically indicative of cyclical turning points, urging investors to take these weak signals seriously [3] - The "downside risks" in the labor market mentioned by Fed Chair Powell have now materialized, and a further rise in unemployment could trigger recession fears similar to those predicted by the Sahm rule [3] Group 4: Interest Rate Expectations - Following the release of the July non-farm data, market expectations for Fed rate cuts have dramatically shifted, with a high likelihood of a rate cut in September [4] - The market has fully priced in a September rate cut, with expectations for more than two cuts throughout the year, while short-term Treasury yields are expected to trend downward [4] - If further signs of weakness in the employment market emerge, the market may price in earlier and larger rate cuts, creating steepening potential in the 2-year and 5-year U.S. Treasury yield curve [4]