Core Viewpoint - The infant formula industry leader, Feihe, is facing significant challenges with a projected profit decline in the first half of 2025 and only low single-digit revenue growth for the entire year, attributed to multiple factors beyond just declining birth rates [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Feihe has launched a 1.2 billion yuan subsidy plan to stimulate demand among new parents, which has led to a price war as competitors like Yili and Junlebao also introduced substantial subsidy plans [1][4]. - The overall market for infant formula has shrunk from 157.2 billion yuan in 2023 to 142 billion yuan in 2024 due to declining birth rates, with the number of newborns in 2024 at 9.54 million [1][3]. Group 2: Financial and Operational Challenges - Feihe's inventory has increased from 1.284 billion yuan at the end of 2020 to 2.154 billion yuan at the end of 2024, with inventory turnover days extending from 69 to 114 days, indicating significant inventory pressure [6]. - The reduction in government subsidies, which fell from 973 million yuan in 2023 to 664 million yuan in 2024, has further impacted Feihe's profitability [6][9]. Group 3: Brand and Consumer Perception - Feihe's premium pricing strategy is misaligned with current consumer preferences, as the majority of the market favors products priced between 200-299 yuan, while Feihe's main products are priced between 350-450 yuan [7]. - Despite heavy marketing expenditures amounting to 7.18 billion yuan in 2024, which is 35% of revenue, the effectiveness of these marketing efforts is diminishing, leading to a decline in brand trust due to quality complaints [8][9]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook - Feihe is attempting to diversify its product offerings beyond infant formula to include adult nutrition and health products, but these new segments currently contribute less than 10% to total revenue [10]. - The company is also expanding into international markets, with its Canadian factory now operational, yet overseas revenue remains low, accounting for only about 1% of total revenue in 2024 [10][11]. Group 5: Industry Context - Feihe's challenges reflect a broader shift in the Chinese infant formula industry from growth through new customer acquisition to competition for existing market share, necessitating a transformation in business strategy to enhance resilience in a low-growth environment [11].
心智观察所：飞鹤面临一场远超“出生率下降”的复杂战役