Core Viewpoint - The report maintains the EPS forecast for Laopuhuang (06181) at 26.57/35.80 CNY for 2025/26, with the current stock price corresponding to 27/20 times the 2025/26 P/E ratio, and keeps the outperform rating and target price at 1079.06 HKD, indicating a 38% upside potential [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 1H25, Laopuhuang reported a revenue increase of 251% year-on-year to 12.4 billion CNY, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 286% to 2.3 billion CNY, aligning with market expectations [1] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 9.59 CNY per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 73%, marking its first interim dividend [1] Group 2: Retail Performance - Laopuhuang shows significant retail performance advantages, with same-store sales continuing to grow strongly [2] - Offline revenue increased by 243% year-on-year to 10.7 billion CNY, with the company opening 5 new stores, bringing the total to 41 [2] - Same-store revenue growth was 201%, with average sales per single mall reaching 460 million CNY, leading the domestic and international jewelry brands [2] - Online revenue surged by 313% to 1.6 billion CNY, contributing 13% to total revenue [2] - Revenue from mainland China grew by 233% to 10.8 billion CNY, while overseas revenue increased by 455% to 1.6 billion CNY, also contributing 13% to total revenue [2] Group 3: Margin and Inventory Management - The gross margin in 1H25 decreased by 3.2 percentage points to 38%, primarily due to rapid gold price increases with only one price adjustment during the period [3] - The impressive revenue growth highlighted operational leverage, with sales and management expense ratio declining by 5.1 percentage points [3] - Inventory increased from 4.1 billion CNY at the beginning of the year to 8.7 billion CNY by the end of June, with inventory turnover days improving from 195 days in 2024 to 150 days in 1H25, indicating healthy inventory management [3] Group 4: Brand Positioning - Laopuhuang continues to emphasize its unique high-end positioning in the ancient gold industry, with a consumer overlap of 77.3% with major luxury brands like Louis Vuitton and Hermes [4] - The brand has established a presence in 9 out of the top 10 commercial centers in China, with expectations for full coverage by the end of the year [4] - As of the end of June, the number of loyal members reached approximately 480,000, an increase of about 130,000 since the beginning of the year, indicating ongoing brand expansion [4] Group 5: Future Development Trends - With the opening and optimization of new stores in high-profile locations, management anticipates a more significant contribution to revenue and profit in the second half of the year [5] - The company plans to increase product prices on August 25, which is expected to support gross margin performance [5]
中金：维持老铺黄金跑赢行业评级 目标价1079.06港元