UBS(US:UBS) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-21 04:48Core Viewpoint - The articles discuss the potential for gold prices to rise due to various factors, including anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical uncertainties, and strong demand for gold from central banks and ETFs. However, there are also warnings about the possibility of gold prices weakening in the short term due to market volatility and mixed signals from the Fed [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes indicate a division among decision-makers regarding inflation and employment risks, which may influence future interest rate decisions [1] - The expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is seen as a new driving force for gold prices, especially following disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data [2] - Market participants are cautious ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting, with a focus on how the Fed's stance on interest rates may impact gold prices [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical developments, including Trump's comments on U.S.-Russia-Ukraine relations and a new ceasefire agreement involving Hamas, are contributing to a reduction in market risk aversion [1] - The ongoing trend of "de-dollarization" and "anti-globalization" is viewed as beneficial for gold's investment and hedging value [2][4] Group 3: Gold Price Predictions - MKS PAMP has adjusted its average gold price forecast for the year to approximately $3,200 per ounce, with an expectation that prices could reach $3,600 per ounce by year-end [4] - UBS has raised its gold price forecast for the second quarter of 2026 to $3,600 per ounce, citing macroeconomic risks and strong investment demand as key factors [5] - The global demand for gold is projected to grow by 3% in 2025, reaching 4,760 metric tons, marking the highest level since 2011 [6]