会稽山热度爆了，为何业绩没爆发？

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 817 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.03%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 93.87 million yuan, up 3.41% year-on-year. However, these growth rates are lower than those of the previous two years, and the performance has disappointed many retail investors [1][2][6]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The revenue growth of 11.03% in the first half of 2025 is below the company's target of 15% to 20% growth in liquor sales for the year, as indicated in the 2024 annual shareholder meeting materials [1][2]. - The company’s average revenue forecast for the full year 2025 is 1.914 billion yuan, with an average net profit forecast of 241 million yuan, requiring growth rates of over 17% and 22% respectively for the year [1][2]. Product Performance - The innovative product, sparkling yellow wine, has seen significant sales growth, with revenue from "other wines" exceeding 70.38 million yuan, a 60.5% increase year-on-year. However, traditional yellow wine products have only seen single-digit growth due to overall market conditions [3][5]. - The mainstay mid-to-high-end yellow wine grew by 7.16%, while ordinary yellow wine grew by 2.53% in the first half of 2025 [3][5]. Marketing and Sales Strategy - The company has adopted innovative marketing strategies, including collaborations with celebrities and health brands, leading to nearly 20% growth in its core market of Zhejiang province [5][6]. - Sales expenses increased by over 53% year-on-year, totaling more than 75 million yuan in the first half of 2025, indicating a significant investment in marketing efforts [5][6]. Financial Metrics - The net profit growth of 3.4% is significantly lower than revenue growth, indicating potential challenges in profitability despite increased sales [6][8]. - The company’s operating costs decreased by 1% year-on-year, which helped improve its gross margin [7][8]. Valuation Concerns - The current performance growth is insufficient to justify the company's high valuation, which exceeds 50 times earnings. The company needs to achieve breakthroughs in traditional product sales, rapid growth in innovative products, or maintain high growth in premium products to support its valuation [8][9]. - Despite achieving double-digit growth in some regions, the overall contribution from these areas remains low, accounting for less than 10% of total revenue [9].