[Table_Main] 行业研究|日常消费|食品、饮料与烟草 证券研究报告 食品、饮料与烟草行业 周报、月报 [Table_Title] 6 月社零增速放缓，餐饮承压 ——食品饮料行业双周报 1）白酒：根据同花顺 Ifind 数据，7 月 18 日飞天茅台原箱/散装批价 分别为 1,950 元/1,890 元，较两周前（7 月 4 日）-5 元/+25 元；八代 普五批价 900 元，较两周前-5 元；国窖 1573 批价 835 元，与两周前 持平。 2）大众品：原材料方面，根据农业农村部数据，最新（7 月 11 日） 生鲜乳主产区平均价 3.04 元/公斤，同比-6.2%，较前一周环比持平， 最新（7 月 10 日）猪肉全国市场价 25.46 元/公斤，同比-11.9%，较 前一周环比+0.4%；根据大连商品交易所数据，最新（7 月 18 日）黄 大豆 1 号期货结算价（活跃合约）4,198 元/吨，同比-7.1%。包材方 面，根据同花顺 Ifind 数据，最新（7 月 18 日）水瓶级 PET 国内市场 价（浙江万凯）6,100 元/吨，同比-16.4%；根据国家统计局数据，最 新（7 月 10 日） ...

感谢大家参加本次会议会议即将开始请稍后大家好欢迎参加刚才实验黄酒推荐逻辑重生目前所有参会者均处于精神状态下面开始播报免责声明声明播报完毕后主持人可直接发言谢谢 本次电话会议仅面向机构投资者或受邀客户第三方专家发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或所表述的意见却不构成具体的判断或投资建议未经东方财富证券书面授权严禁录音转发及相关解读不得传播音频视频图片文字等内容涉嫌违反上述情形的东方财富证券将保留一切法律权利感谢您的理解和支持谢谢 好的各位投资人下午好我是东方财富证券食品链分析师赵国防今天的话借用下午的时间的话我们再讲一下黄九的一个观点从上周开始我们做了产业链调研然后再向市场传递我们的对黄九的一个观点和看法然后包括留言包括 这个各种公开的一个平时然后去传递我们的声音我们总体是非常看好这个黄牛这个板块的那近期的话就是这个板块呢就是比较快速的上涨比如像这个快递山啊就是这个昨天一度涨停今天也比较高的时候涨其他的点那现在来看呢收盘的情况也是不错的所以呢就是关注度呢 又在比较高的一个提升但是在关注度提升的同时比如说我们这段时间的话跟买方客户进行沟通和交流下来一个情况来看的话其实还是存在预期差的还是存在比较大的预期差我就举个简 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - The liquor sector is experiencing a decline in sentiment due to fluctuations in the price of Feitian Moutai, with leading companies actively exploring new consumption scenarios and demographics [2][13] - The health products, soft drinks, and snacks sectors are viewed positively due to high growth potential, low base effects, and upcoming peak seasons [4][15] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 0.88% from June 23 to June 27, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.95% [1][22] - Specific sector performances included health products (+3.65%), baked goods (+2.72%), and soft drinks (-0.58%) [1][22] Liquor Sector Insights - The white liquor sector declined by 1.66%, attributed to seasonal demand weakness and price fluctuations of high-end products like Feitian Moutai [2][13] - Current prices for 25-year Moutai (original/scattered) are 1870 RMB/1800 RMB, down by 80 RMB/100 RMB from the previous week [2][13] - The Shunwan white liquor index PE-TTM is at 18X, which is considered low compared to the historical average [2][13] Health Products and Snacks - The health products sector is experiencing a growth trend, with a 3.65% increase this week, driven by new consumption trends [20] - The snack sector is expected to benefit from low base effects and new product launches, with companies like Three Squirrels and Salted Fish being highlighted [17][21] Soft Drinks and Beer - The soft drink sector saw a slight decline of 0.6%, with notable performances from brands like Master Kong (+5.4%) and Nongfu Spring (+5.3%) [4][15] - The beer sector declined by 1.9%, but there is optimism for recovery with upcoming consumption policies [4][15] Investment Recommendations - Focus on strong alpha companies in the liquor sector such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai, which are expected to benefit from market consolidation [4][21] - In the consumer goods sector, companies that align with cost reduction and market share growth strategies are recommended, including Li Gao Foods and Nongfu Spring [4][21]

Core Insights - The competitiveness of the Yangtze River Delta wine industry is fundamentally driven by the release of policy dividends, activation of geographical endowments, and the reconstruction of the industrial chain [12] Economic Overview - In 2024, the GDP of the Yangtze River Delta is projected to exceed 33 trillion yuan, contributing 25% of the national economic total with only 4% of the land [3] - The region accounts for approximately 17% of the national population and contributes about 30% to national economic growth [3] - In the first quarter of 2025, the GDP surpassed 8 trillion yuan, maintaining a strong position in the national economic landscape [3] Industry Performance - Anhui's liquor industry reported significant growth in 2024, with revenue from large enterprises reaching 37.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, and total profits of 12.77 billion yuan, up 13.2% [4] - Jiangsu faced challenges with a 9.83% decline in liquor production and a 16.69% drop in profits, contrasting with the expansion of production capacity by major brands [4] - Zhejiang's yellow wine industry, which holds 57.02% of national production, has seen leading companies achieve growth through structural upgrades and market expansion [4] Challenges Faced - Shanghai's local brands are struggling, with Jin Feng Wine achieving a revenue of 578 million yuan, a mere 0.87% increase, while its net profit plummeted by 94.49% [5] - Shanghai Gui Jiu experienced an 82.54% revenue drop to 285 million yuan, resulting in a net loss of 217 million yuan due to issues like related party transactions and funding chain disruptions [5] - The overall industry faces challenges such as aging consumers in Zhejiang and insufficient penetration into younger markets [6] Strategic Insights - The integration strategy of the Yangtze River Delta aims to break down administrative barriers and inject new momentum into the wine industry [8] - The region's economic foundation and scale have fostered the rise of Su and Hui wines, with leading companies capturing over 60% of their respective provincial markets [7] - Experts suggest that the wine industry must shift from provincial strategies to a more integrated approach, leveraging the strengths of the entire region [10] Future Opportunities - The Yangtze River Delta's one-integration strategy presents a historic opportunity for the wine industry, emphasizing the need for collaboration and resource sharing among provinces [9] - Initiatives include establishing a smart brewing innovation chain, promoting integrated cultural tourism, and developing new green consumption scenarios [9] - The region's unique economic and demographic characteristics create a fertile ground for high-end consumption, with significant potential for growth in premium wine markets [8]

Group 1 - The yellow wine industry appears to be shrinking from a market perspective, but there remains significant potential for growth [1] - The ratio of high-alcohol to low-alcohol beverages in Europe, the US, and Japan is approximately 5:5, while in China it is 7:3, indicating a rapid adjustment in consumption patterns [1] - Over the past six years, the production of high-alcohol beverages has decreased by about 50%, while the annual growth rate of low-alcohol beverages reached an impressive 25% to 30% last year [1] Group 2 - Yellow wine, as a unique low-alcohol beverage in China, possesses vast development potential and market space [1]

(责任编辑：王治强HF013) 【6月18日杭州会稽山黄酒文化发展有限公司成立，会稽山黄酒市场表现跌宕起伏】6月18日，杭州会稽 山黄酒文化发展有限公司成立，法定代表人为王栓，经营范围涵盖文化场馆管理服务、组织文化艺术交 流活动、旅游开发项目策划咨询等。长期以来，黄酒面临走不出江浙沪的困境，多数产品售价不足10元 一瓶，导致毛利率不高，也难登高端餐桌。4月初，会稽山、古越龙山先后提价，均称旨在推动黄酒品 类价值回归，提升市场对黄酒产品价值的认同。端午前，会稽山邀请明星吴彦祖与网红白冰联合带 货"气泡黄酒"，并在抖音多账号直播。这款酒12小时销售额突破1000万元，直播间观众超万人。会稽山 股价随之攀升，节前8个内6天涨停。5月股价涨幅超70%，年内涨幅超126%，市值从4月初约50亿元飙 升至最高120亿元，首次超过古越龙山。业绩方面，会稽山正挑战古越龙山"黄酒一哥"地位。古越龙山 2024年年报显示，营收19.36亿元，同比增8.55%，但归母净利润2.06亿元，同比下滑48.17%。会稽山 2024年营收16.31亿元，略低于古越龙山，但同比增速15.6%，势头更猛，净利润1.96亿元，同比增长 17.7 ...

Core Insights - Baosteel Packaging celebrates its 10th anniversary of A-share listing, highlighting significant achievements in multiple fields over the past decade [1] - The metal packaging industry has experienced growth alongside the rise of new consumer brands in China, with Baosteel Packaging adapting to changes in consumer and customer demands [1] Industry Developments - The popularity of Huangjiu among younger consumers has led to the launch of 8-degree sparkling Huangjiu by Kuaijishan, achieving sales of 10 million yuan within 12 hours during the 2025 "6.18 Shopping Festival," with over 80% of transactions made by young people [1] - Baosteel Packaging is a leading supplier of two-piece cans for Kuaijishan's sparkling Huangjiu, collaborating well with numerous well-known fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) brands [1] Product and Market Trends - Consumers prioritize taste and packaging in alcoholic beverages, with many new consumer products opting for canning due to advantages in transportation, storage, and marketing [1] - Baosteel Packaging has made advancements in printing and forming technologies, aiding in the innovation of beverage packaging [1] Sustainability and Global Expansion - The global push for plastic bans is driving the demand for low-carbon products, with Chinese brands benefiting from green premiums in international markets [1] - Baosteel Packaging is enhancing its overseas presence, with projects in Vietnam and Cambodia, including a new smart two-piece can production base in Vietnam expected to commence production in January 2026 [1] - The company has achieved full coverage of green factory certifications for its subsidiaries and is developing a dual-carbon control platform, releasing product carbon footprint reports to establish a low-carbon roadmap [1] Strategic Partnerships - Baosteel Packaging has established long-term collaborations with various domestic and international FMCG brands, promoting globalization and deepening international cooperation to build a green supply chain [1]

Core Viewpoint - Baosteel Packaging celebrates its 10th anniversary on the A-share market, highlighting its adaptability to consumer trends and commitment to green development while expanding overseas [1] Group 1: Market Trends and Consumer Preferences - The metal packaging industry has experienced growth alongside the rise of new consumer brands in China, driven by high-quality development and the "dual circulation" strategy [1] - Young consumers are increasingly favoring products like sparkling yellow wine, as evidenced by Kuaijishan's sales performance during the "6.18 shopping festival," where its Douyin store achieved sales of 10 million yuan in just 12 hours [1] - Baosteel Packaging is a supplier of two-piece cans for Kuaijishan's sparkling yellow wine, indicating its strong partnerships with fast-moving consumer goods brands [1] Group 2: Product Innovation and Sustainability - The company has optimized its product structure to meet consumer demands for taste and packaging, with a shift towards canned beverages due to their lightweight, low loss, and aesthetic appeal [1] - Baosteel Packaging has made advancements in printing and forming technologies, supporting innovation in beverage branding [1] - The global push for plastic bans and the emphasis on environmental protection by the EU are driving demand for low-carbon products, which can command a premium in overseas markets [1] Group 3: International Expansion and Green Initiatives - In 2025, Baosteel Packaging plans to enhance its overseas presence with projects in Vietnam and Cambodia, including the completion of the first hoisting at the Long An project in Vietnam, which is expected to produce 800 million cans annually by January 2026 [1] - The Long An facility will improve logistics efficiency and is designed with a "solar roof," projected to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 1,150 tons annually [1] - The company has achieved full green factory certification for its subsidiaries and is actively developing a dual-carbon platform while publishing carbon footprint reports [1]

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·非白酒 会稽山（601579） 增持（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,411 | 1,631 | 1,900 | 2,233 | 2,555 | | 同比（%） | 15.01 | 15.60 | 16.48 | 17.52 | 14.40 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 166.63 | 196.19 | 231.61 | 280.26 | 327.66 | | 同比（%） | 15.11 | 17.74 | 18.05 | 21.00 | 16.91 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.35 | 0.41 | 0.48 | 0.58 | 0.68 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 61.12 | 51.91 | 43.97 | 36.34 | 31.08 | [投资要点 Table_Summary] 锐意进取，重塑成长曲线 2025 年 06 月 18 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [11]. Core Views - The yellow wine industry is stabilizing, with a total revenue of 21 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.1%. The company, as a leading player in the industry, is expected to benefit from the ongoing trends of premiumization and targeting younger consumers, which will drive growth in both domestic and provincial markets. The projected EPS for the company in 2025 and 2026 is 0.48 yuan and 0.58 yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 43 and 36 times [3][9]. Company Overview - The company, Kuaijishan Shaoxing Wine Co., Ltd., is a leading player in China's yellow wine industry with a rich brand heritage. It has been recognized as the exclusive yellow wine for state banquets and has been designated as the official yellow wine for the G20 summit. The company has undergone significant changes, including acquisitions and a shift in strategic focus towards high-end, youthful, and fashionable products since the change of its actual controller in 2022 [6][19][22]. Industry Analysis - The yellow wine industry is currently a niche market, primarily concentrated in the East China region, particularly in Zhejiang province. The industry has seen a significant increase in concentration, with the top three companies holding approximately 43% of the market share, up from about 18% in 2016. This indicates a stabilizing industry structure [7][59]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has implemented a dual-brand strategy focusing on "Kuaijishan" and "Lanting," emphasizing high-end and youthful product lines. The company has achieved impressive growth in its key products, with the Lanting series growing over 100% and the "One Day One Smoke" product increasing by 476% year-on-year. This growth is attributed to internal reforms and a more dynamic sales team [8][65][68]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected EPS of 0.48 yuan and 0.58 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively. The current PE ratios are 43 and 36 times, indicating a favorable valuation for potential investors [9][11].