Apple(US:AAPL) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-21 11:55Core Viewpoint - Bank of America indicates that Apple's supply chain is entering a significant upgrade cycle in 2025-2026, with attention on new model inventory, specification upgrades, and stock performance [1] Group 1: New Model Inventory - The inventory for the iPhone 17 series in the second half of 2025 is slightly above 90 million units, remaining stable compared to last year's 90-95 million units [2] - Market concerns about a year-on-year decline in inventory of 5%-10% have eased due to reduced tariff pressures on Apple products [2] - Key suppliers like Largan and Zhen Ding reported flat sales in July, supporting the trend of stable inventory [2] Group 2: Specification Upgrades - The iPhone 17 series will introduce a "slim" version, replacing the Plus model, featuring a titanium shell and a single rear camera, with increased use of flexible printed circuit boards (FPC) [10] - The Pro series will see upgrades including a periscope lens and front camera enhancements to 48 million and 24 million pixels, respectively, along with a 50%+ increase in cover glass average selling price [10] - Benefiting suppliers include Cowell (camera modules), Lens Tech (cover glass), Zhen Ding (PCB/FPC), Largan (lenses), and AAC (acoustics/thermal) [10][14] Group 3: Stock Performance - Historically, supply chain stock prices tend to rise before new product launches and may pull back post-launch due to profit-taking; however, during upgrade cycles, stock prices recover more quickly [15] - Since May, key suppliers' stock prices have averaged a 13% increase [15] - Future stock performance will depend on Apple's pricing strategy and consumer feedback, which will influence fourth-quarter demand [15] Group 4: Stock Recommendations - Lens Technology - H: Initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 26 HKD [17] - Lens Technology - A: Initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 29 CNY [17] - AAC Technologies: Upgraded to "Buy" with a target price of 57 HKD [17] - BYD Electronics: Downgraded to "Neutral" with a target price of 42 HKD [17] - Cowell: "Buy" rating with a target price of 35 HKD [17] - Zhen Ding: "Buy" rating with a target price of 185 TWD [17]