中广核矿业(1164.HK)：国际贸易扰动不改自产贸易积极趋势

Core Viewpoint - The company issued a profit warning, expecting a net profit of approximately -90 to -40 million HKD for the first half of 2025, a significant decline from a net profit of 113 million HKD in the first half of 2024, primarily due to fluctuations in spot uranium prices affecting the international trade business and a decline in joint venture performance [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's international trade business faced a cost-price inversion in the first half of 2025, with unit sales costs ranging from 68 to 74 USD/lbs U3O8, while contract sales prices were between 58 to 61 USD/lbs U3O8, resulting in a gross loss of 7 to 16 USD/lbs U3O8 [1] - The estimated loss from the international trade segment for the first half of 2025 is approximately -362 to -312 million HKD [1] Group 2: Future Sales Agreements - A new three-year uranium sales framework agreement for 2026-2028 was approved, adjusting the pricing mechanism to 30% base price and 70% spot price, with significant increases in base prices from previous years [2] - The new base prices for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are set at 94.22, 98.08, and 102.10 USD/lbs respectively, compared to previous years' prices [2] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The global nuclear energy revival is supported by multiple factors, including decarbonization goals, energy security needs, AI-driven electricity growth, and geopolitical changes [2] - Recent policy actions in the U.S. and Japan, along with agreements between major companies for nuclear power purchases, indicate a positive outlook for nuclear energy demand [2] - The long-term price of uranium is expected to remain strong, with recent statistics showing a month-on-month increase in uranium prices [2] Group 4: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down by 51% to 348 million HKD due to one-time losses in the international trade business, while net profit estimates for 2026 and 2027 are projected at 1,039 million HKD and 1,123 million HKD respectively [2] - The target price is maintained at 2.43 HKD, with a "buy" rating supported by a valuation of 18.0x P/E for 2026 [2]