ANE(CAYMAN)INC(09956.HK)：FIRST-TIME DIVIDEND PAYOUT RATIO REACHED 50%; WATCH PRICE RECOVERY IN PEAK SEASON

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 1H25 results, showing a slight miss in revenue and profit expectations due to increased price competition, while announcing its first dividend payout since its IPO, reflecting confidence in future growth [1][4]. Financial Performance - In 1H25, revenue increased by 6.4% YoY to Rmb5.63 billion, gross profit rose by 0.2% YoY to Rmb880 million, and adjusted net profit grew by 10.7% YoY to Rmb476 million, with an adjusted net margin of 8.5% [1]. - For 2Q25, revenue rose by 4% YoY to Rmb3.04 billion, gross profit fell by 5% YoY to Rmb470 million, and adjusted net profit increased by 6% YoY to Rmb234 million, indicating pressure on growth [1]. - The firm announced a dividend payout ratio of 50% based on 1H25 attributable net profit, aligning with market expectations [1][4]. Operational Trends - The company optimized its freight volume structure, with total LTL freight volume increasing by 6.2% YoY to 6.82 million tonnes in 1H25, and mini freight volume rising by 23.9% YoY [2]. - The total number of shipments rose by 25.2% YoY to 90.6 million, with an average weight decrease from 89kg to 75kg [2]. Pricing and Cost Dynamics - In 2Q25, the average selling price (ASP) of LTL services decreased by 2% YoY to Rmb805 per tonne due to price competition, while the cost per tonne remained flat YoY at Rmb680 [3]. - Unit gross profit fell by 11% YoY to Rmb125 per tonne, influenced by price competition, with expectations for price recovery in the peak season of 4Q25 [3]. Cash Flow and Dividends - As of end-1H25, cash and cash equivalents increased by 6.4% YoY to Rmb2.18 billion, indicating solid cash flow [4]. - The board declared an interim dividend of HK$0.1572 per share and a special dividend of HK$0.0393 per share, reflecting strong shareholder returns [4]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company revised its 2025 and 2026 non-HKFRS net profit forecasts down by 6% and 9% to Rmb944 million and Rmb1.10 billion, respectively, due to industry demand pressures [4]. - The stock is currently trading at 9.5x 2025e and 8.2x 2026e non-HKFRS P/E, with a target price of HK$11, implying a 31% upside [4].