天风证券：银行股长期破净 业内估值依旧低于整体PB-ROE趋势

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has been trading below its net asset value for seven consecutive years, with a dividend yield reaching 7.26% as of July 12, 2024, the highest in a decade, significantly surpassing the 10-year government bond yield by 5.00 percentage points [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Continuous Trading Below Net Asset Value - The continuous trading below net asset value in the banking sector is attributed to three main factors: asset quality exposure risks, declining profitability, and asset expansion rates significantly outpacing other industries, which depresses valuations [2][3]. Group 2: Asset Quality Risks - The exposure of asset quality risks has led to a "discount" in the market valuation of bank assets. The price-to-book (PB) ratio indicates that the market perceives the value of bank stocks to be less than their net asset value, reflecting concerns over current and future asset quality [3][4]. - Historical data shows that from 2018 to 2020, the growth rate of non-performing loans (NPLs) outpaced credit growth, with significant declines observed during two periods, leading to a total increase in NPLs of 451.4 billion and 467.8 billion yuan, representing 20.93% and 16.50% of the total NPLs, respectively [3]. Group 3: Declining Profitability - The decline in revenue-generating capacity of banks has resulted in a reduction in future valuations. Current return on equity (ROE) corresponds to a theoretical PB of approximately 0.63 times, necessitating an ROE of about 14.15% to return to a PB of 1 [4][5]. - A comparison of key financial metrics from 2016 to the first quarter of 2025 shows a decrease in net interest margin and earning asset ratios, while non-interest income has increased significantly [4]. Group 4: Impact of Net Asset Growth - The growth in net asset value per share, amidst operational pressures, has a dampening effect on the denominator of the PB valuation. Factors such as low-interest environments and asset quality risks have contributed to a declining profitability trend, limiting the attractiveness of net asset growth to investors [5].